The eternal optimist in me, along with the realist, wants to quell everyone’s fears about the San Francisco real estate market with some good ole common sense + a few stats. The Chronicle published an article this week titled, "Bay Area will be nation’s coolest housing market in 2020, survey says.” While the data may not be off the charts in inaccuracies, the title is wildly misleading. The abridged version is this: Zillow surveyed a group of "economists and real estate experts," and that "On average, the panelists said they expect U.S. home prices to grow by 2.8% in 2020. They were then asked whether certain markets would out-perform or under-perform that 2.8% appreciation rate. Of those surveyed, the greatest number thought the SF and San Jose Metro areas would underperform the 2.8%. However, they were NOT asked to predict how much the markets would out- or under-perform, which would typically be the measurement of "hottest" or "coolest" markets. It may seem like interpretation but is not. The panel made no predictions as to actual appreciation or depreciation rates beyond being above or below 2.8%. If you can get beyond the misleading title and focus on the stats there is nothing alarming or unexpected. The only actual prediction was made by Ken Rosen, chairman of the Fisher Center for Real Estate and Urban Economics at UC Berkeley, and "Overall, he expects the median Bay Area home price will be flat to up or down 2%." That's not unreasonable, and in fact approximatelydescribes most Bay Area markets in 2019. The article also discusses market-impacting factors like interest rates, outward migration and recent federal tax laws capping deductions. I still maintain that San Francisco Real Estate is one of the best investments a person can make, especially when the market does flatten out. I am the best example of this. I got into the market 25 years ago and had all the same fears most first time buyers have…panic and anxiety. Gratefully I took the plunge which has allowed me to glow with the the pride of ownership and security.